GIS in School Enrollment Forecasting—An Example for Bend, Oregon

Deschutes County and the Bend--LaPine School District are two of the most rapidly growing areas in Oregon. One result of this growth has been the need for more schools. The school district sought a $45.7 million bond to acquire six new school sites and build three new schools. The district contracted with David Evans and Associates (DEA) for planning support. DEA approached the Population Research Center (PRC) at Portland State University for assistance in forecasting future school enrollment. This poster shows part of that work by PRC, particularly some of the facets that depended heavily on the use of GIS tools.

This map illustrates the use of one type of model used for school enrollment forecasting, the grade progression model. The graphs show how this model is conventionally applied to a districtwide population. The maps show how this model can be applied to small geographical areas with spatial trending using ArcView Spatial Analyst and other tools.

The graph shows the conventional application of the grade progression model to the entire school district. The value of 1.53 in the upper left cell of the graph indicates that there were 1.53 times as many first grade students in 1990 as there were kindergarten students in 1989. Areas shown in shades of red on this graph indicate increases in a grade cohort from one year to the next. Areas in blue indicate declines. Similarly, the maps of cohort trends display trends from 1997 to 1999, showing areas of gains in red and areas of losses in blue. ArcView Spatial Analyst was used to transform the geocoded point student data to a grid map of generalized trends.